Welcome to The Athletic’s daily World Cup Predictions.
This article gives you the lowdown on all today’s games, but with the bonus of some friendly competition…
Throughout the tournament, we will have two Athletic writers (Andy Jones or Elias Burke — with help from our experts from each of the 48 countries) pitting our soccer knowledge against a different Athletic subscriber each day and “Algo”, the shiny new algorithm from The Athletic, which is making its computerised debut during the 2026 World Cup.
Oh, and a dog called Stanley and a six-year-old called Wilfred (who some of you may remember from last season’s Premier League predictions).
Our guest subscriber today is Leo from England, who supports Bosnia & Herzegovina and Arsenal. Good luck, Leo!
If you would like to apply to be our guest subscriber for a day during this tournament,
What happened on Matchday 2?
After a passionate rendition of ‘O Canada’ by Alanis Morissette rescued Michael Buble’s slightly awkward opening ceremony performance, the wind was quickly taken out of Canada’s sails in the 21st minute against Bosnia and Herzegovina, with Jovo Lukic heading in from a corner.
Lukic was drafted in to start with 40-year-old striker Edin Dzeko — dubbed the ‘Bosnian diamond’, and the nation’s record goalscorer, appearance-maker and undisputed greatest player — on the bench, recovering from a shoulder injury.
For a long time, it appeared as if that’s how it might end, particularly when Canada’s ineffective star striker Jonathan David was replaced just after the hour mark. But Cyle Larin had different ideas. Canada head coach Jesse Marsch — an American who riled up U.S. fans and past stars ahead of the game by suggesting he had to “beg” for Americans to sing the national anthem when he was an assistant coach for the USMNT — introduced Larin from the bench in the 76th minute, and he scored two minutes later to secure a 1-1 draw.
Having all picked Canada to carry Mexico’s positive opening-day vibes into Toronto, we were all willing Larin to inspire the co-hosts to a win — but alas, it ended 1-1. Zero points all round, and the end of a fledgling two-game winning streak for Algo, the readers and six-year-old Wilfred.
Young Wilfred, who predicted a draw in the second game of the day, went pointless on matchday two, as the United States got their much-anticipated opening game against Paraguay underway with a bang, winning 4-1 in front of a raucous crowd in Los Angeles’ SoFi Stadium.
The USMNT went ahead after seven minutes thanks to an own goal by Paraguay midfielder Damian Bobadilla, then kept pushing hard and attacking the South American side, demonstrating a gulf in class and readiness for the occasion that few foresaw. By the time Mauricio Pochettino had his players in for the half-time team-talk, the U.S. were 3-0 up and well on their way to one of the nation’s greatest victories.
The USMNT got off to a flier (Sebastian Frej/Getty Images)
Gio Reyna’s magic right foot put the finishing touch on an excellent performance, with Pochettino’s side winning 4-1 owing to a brilliant double by Folarin Balogun, the striker who was born in New York and raised in London. With The Athletic experts, Algo, the readers and Stanley the Dog predicting a United States win, four of us are back to winning ways, while Wilfred is left cursing his decision to doubt the hosts. Them’s the breaks, kid.
We have our first bumper Saturday of the World Cup, with four games to predict: Qatar v Switzerland, Brazil v Morocco (one of the most exciting fixtures of the group stages), Haiti v Scotland and Australia v Turkey. Good luck!
How do the predictions work?
It’s pretty simple: we will give you some background on each game, players to watch and facts on the two teams. Then we will predict the outcome: either a WIN for one of the two teams, or a DRAW.
We will maintain a leaderboard of how everyone gets on with their predictions (ranked by the percentage they get correct) but we’ll also keep a record of “streaks” — the number of predictions everyone gets right in a row. These streaks also form a crucial part of The Athletic’s interactive Soccer Pick’Ems feature, allowing you to make your own picks every round as well.
So come along and get involved, and check back each day to see how we are getting on in the leaderboard, and probably more importantly, whether you, the subscribers, or Stanley or Wilfred are beating us.
Or, worst of all, whether ‘Algo’ can prove data and statistics know all when it comes to predicting.
Good luck, and enjoy!
Why not try The Athletic’s World Cup Tracker, where you can find a forecast projecting the likelihood that each team will progress through each stage of the tournament, along with a bracket projecting the most likely round-of-32 matchups, current standings, and a bunch of other neat forecasts and scenarios.
Predictions for Matchday 3
Qatar vs Switzerland, Group B, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, kick-off 3pm ET, 8pm BST
Where to watch: FOX (U.S.) ITV (UK)
Streak Risk Factor: 2/5. Qatar don’t appear to have made enough strides from four years ago to pose a real threat to a Switzerland side who qualified comfortably and confidently.
Watch Rating: 2/5. With the exception of this being a game on at a watchable time both in the U.S. and the U.K., there is a gulf in class between both sides, so it may not be much of a contest.
The Athletic Expert says: “The hosts from four years ago will be looking to be much improved from their disappointing group-stage exit where they lost all three games.
“Qatar, managed by the well-respected Julen Lopetegui, qualified through the playoffs and are without a win in their last six games, including a warm-up friendly defeat to Republic of Ireland and a goalless draw with El Salvador.
“Switzerland, on the other hand, arrive off the back of a strong qualification campaign which saw them go unbeaten in what was a kind group, recording an aggregate score of 14-2.
“As the Premier League was reminded this season, Granit Xhaka remains an important presence in any team he plays in. Switzerland’s recent ‘golden generation’ is coming to an end but they still have plenty of tournament experience with the likes of Ricardo Rodriguez and Breel Embolo complemented by younger talent like Freiburg midfielder Johan Manzambi.
“Murat Yakin’s side are the favourites and should start their campaign with a victory.”
The Athletic Expert: SWITZERLAND WIN
Guest subscriber Leo: SWITZERLAND WIN
Six-year-old Wilfred: SWITZERLAND WIN
Stanley the Dog: DRAW
Algo: SWITZERLAND WIN
Granit Xhaka is still a class act for Switzerland (Dave Bernal/ISI Photos/ISI Photos via Getty Images)
Brazil vs Morocco, Group C, MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, kick-off time 6pm ET, 11pm BST
Where to watch: FOX (U.S.) BBC (UK)
Streak Rating Risk: 5/5. This looks like it could be set up for a classic early group-stage shock as Morocco are a good side who will cause Brazil problems if the South American side start slowly.
Watch Rating: 5/5. Despite the elite quality in their squad, Brazil don’t feel like the juggernaut they have been in tournaments past, which could leave the door open to the semi-finalists from four years ago.
The Athletic Expert says: “Morocco were controversially awarded the AFCON title two months after they were beaten by Senegal in the final this year, but it was too late to save the job of Walid Regragui, who had guided the country to the last four in Qatar.
“Mohamed Ouahbi replaced him and has overseen five friendlies. He inherited a side containing the likes of Paris Saint-Germain’s Achraf Hakimi, Real Madrid’s Brahim Diaz and the potential breakout star of this tournament, Lille’s Ayyoub Bouaddi. This side showcased their quality to progress through the tournament in December and couldn’t have had a smoother qualification for the World Cup, winning all eight of their matches.
“Brazil’s journey was more turbulent and they benefited from the expanded World Cup as they won only eight of their 18 qualification matches and finished fifth in their group, with the top six progressing.
“There is so much attacking talent to choose from, headlined by Vinicius Jr. and while that should help them overpower lesser opposition, questions remain about how they will shape up tactically against stronger teams. “
The Athletic Expert: BRAZIL WIN
Guest subscriber Leo: DRAW
Six-year-old Wilfred: BRAZIL WIN
Stanley the Dog: DRAW
Algo: BRAZIL WIN
Will Vinicius star for Brazil? (OSCAR DEL POZO / AFP via Getty Images)
Haiti vs Scotland, Group C, Gillette Stadium, Foxboro, kick-off 9pm ET, 2am BST
Where to watch: FOX (U.S.) BBC (UK)
Streak Rating Risk: 2. This should be a comfortable victory for Scotland, but they will face a defensively disciplined Haiti side who will look to counter-attack.
Watch Rating: 3. Scotland in the first World Cup for 28 years is worth a watch, even if the timing of the game has done no favours for those watching back in the UK. The game itself might be limited for excitement but is a game both teams need to win from a qualification perspective.
The Athletic Expert says: “There has been a growing excitement among Scottish fans as the tournament has neared and this is a fixture they must win given the strength of the group they are in.
“This is their first World Cup since 1998, they have never progressed out of the group stages and have never won more than one game. Their more recent European Championship appearances have not seen them fare much better. Manager Steve Clarke will be relying on the likes of Scott McTominay, John McGinn and Andrew Robertson. McTominay has been suffering from a stomach bug but it is hoped that he will be available for their opening game.
“Their opponents Haiti have not qualified for the tournament since 1974, and have become the first Caribbean nation to reach multiple World Cups — a huge feat given they had to play their qualifying games in a different country.
“Manager Sebastien Migne can’t have been too pleased with the group draw but they will hope a compact structure, rapid transition and the firepower of Wilson Isidor and Duckens Nazon can help them to produce a shock or two. Their 4-0 victory over New Zealand ahead of the tournament was a reminder that they will not be a pushover.”
The Athletic Expert: SCOTLAND WIN
Guest subscriber Leo: SCOTLAND WIN
Six-year-old Wilfred: SCOTLAND WIN
Stanley the Dog: HAITI WIN
Algo: SCOTLAND WIN
Scott McTominay is Scotland’s leading player (Roger Wimmer/ISI Photos/ISI Photos via Getty Images)
Australia vs Turkey, Group D, BC Place, Vancouver, kick-off 12am (midnight) ET, 5am BST
Where to watch: FS1 (U.S.) ITV (UK)
Streak Rating Risk: 3/5. Turkey has the talent but lacks an out-and-out goalscorer, so if Australia can frustrate, it could open up all three results as a possibility.
Watch Rating: 2/5. Far from the most enticing late kick-off for US fans and fair play to anyone willingly getting up (or staying up) in the UK. That’s proper dedication. If anyone on the pitch can make it worth it, it’s probably Turkey’s Arda Guler and Kenan Yildiz.
The Athletic Experts say: “If you haven’t been told that Turkey could be the dark horses in the tournament, then you aren’t doing the World Cup right. Regardless of how good or bad they are, they always come up in that discussion before a major tournament. That is when they qualify, with this being their first World Cup since 2002.
“The squad named by Vincenzo Montella, the former Italy striker, had a strong qualifying campaign, losing only once. They found themselves in the play-offs, however, after finishing second to Spain. Turkey may not have a reliable goalscorer, but they will hope the abundance of attacking talent behind will be enough. They boast two 21-year-olds who’ve earned the wonderkid tag — Real Madrid’s Guler and Juventus’ Yildiz.
“For Australia, the appointment of Tony Popovic in September 2024 eased any qualification fears with an unbeaten run of eight matches. He has built the team from the back with a solid and compact back five protected by a battle-hardened midfield.
“Defensive passivity turns into quick counter-attacks and the stardust further forward comes in the form of emerging youngsters, Nestory Irankunda and Mo Toure — although the latter is an injury concern for the opening fixture.”
The Athletic Expert: TURKEY WIN
Guest subscriber Leo: TURKEY WIN
Six-year-old Wilfred: DRAW
Stanley the Dog: TURKEY WIN
Algo: TURKEY WIN
