Predicting the NBA’s notable player options, team options and non-guarantees

“Decline and re-sign.”

Get accustomed to that phrase, because you’re going to be hearing it a lot in the coming weeks. Multiple teams will decline their options on players for next season, making them free agents, only to re-up the same players on longer-term deals … for annual dollar amounts that are more helpful with the salary-cap shell game every front office must play in this era.

That’s not the only variant, however. You will also see similar examples with some contracts that have player options, particularly for older players, where teams can spread an unpalatable cap hit for a declining player over multiple years. And we have a few special examples — such as James Harden’s funky, partially guaranteed player option — where the “decline and re-sign” endgame also seems a likely finishing point.

I bring this up because the topic here is sorting out exactly what will happen with all of the league’s player options, team options and non-guarantees ahead of free agency’s tipoff on the afternoon of June 30. All contracts with an option have to be settled one way or another by the end of June, and most (but not all) contracts with limited salary protection have similar constructs.

That’s where I come in. I’m looking at my crystal ball and forecasting how all these situations will play out — which options get picked up, which ones result in free agency, and which ones, yes, result in the “decline and re-sign.” (Hint: Lots of them.)

Before we start, a few ground rules. First, I’m not doing every single option; in particular, a great many partial or non-guaranteed team options exist on contracts that fringe players signed in the middle of last season. I could spend a lot of words on those, but we’re going to save our breath and focus on options and partial guarantees that are either a) in favor of the player, b) for more than the minimum, or c) involve a Champagnie brother.

Also, if you need an explanation for my BORD$ formula — BORD$ (Big Ol’ Rating Dollars), which is designed to answer a simple question: How much value can we expect a given player to deliver for next season? — you can find it here.

That takes our list from something approaching infinitude to a more manageable roster of 42 names. Here’s how I see each of those 42 playing out.

(All dollars shown are value of contract option for 2026-27 season; PO = Player option; TO = Team option; NG = Non-guaranteed; PG = Partial guarantee)

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Trae Young, PG, Washington (PO, $48,967,380)

It’s long been presumed Young and Washington would reach some arrangement to extend his stay after the Wizards acquired him in January. The question: What format does the deal take? While Young opting out and then signing, say, a three-year deal in the $110 million range makes some sense (functionally adding two years at $30 million each for a player with a BORD$ value of $29.5 million), having Young opt in and then sign a two-year extension with declining money may work better for Washington’s cap. The Wizards can shoulder a $49 million contract this year, add the top pick in the draft and use most or all of their non-taxpayer midlevel exception and still skirt the luxury tax. However, the out years get tricky once they look at extensions for their younger players (notably Alex Sarr and Kyshawn George in 2028).

Prediction: Opts in with immediate extension

Zach LaVine, SG, Sacramento (PO, $48,967,380)

Gee, what will he do? After a rough 2025-26 season, BORD$ values LaVine at just $9.3 million. At this point, his best move is to play out the year and see if he can create more value for his 2027 free agency. The Kings have tax issues and there’s a scenario where they try to get him to opt out and sign a longer deal at a lower annual salary. But I think the Kings are better off just keeping the huge expiring deal on their books for trade purposes.

Prediction: Opts in

James Harden, PG, Cleveland (POPG $42,317,307, $13,300,000 guaranteed)

Harden and Cleveland likely had a wink and a nod when he was traded to the Cavs at midseason that they would do something after the season. The most likely scenario for that is the Cavs landing the plane softly with a two-year deal in the $65-70 million range. BORD$ values him at $36.4 million. With Harden turning 37 in August, even the second year carries some risk.

Prediction: Opts out with immediate two-year extension

Andrew Wiggins, SF, Miami (PO, $30,169,644)

Wiggins has a BORD$ value of $13.7 million, so I don’t see him opting out. Miami also has a scenario with max-plus cap space in 2027 if the Heat miss out on Giannis Antetokounmpo and can use Wiggins as expiring money in other trade scenarios, so I don’t see Miami committing to an extension at this time.

Prediction: Opts in

Isaiah Hartenstein, C, Oklahoma City (TO, $28,500,000)

Hartenstein’s team option was designed to give the Thunder flexibility right as their team becomes among the league’s most expensive. He’s way too valuable to lose, with a BORD$ value of $32.1 million, so the only question is how the Thunder structure his future. The best way for OKC to handle the money part and the impact on the tax aprons is via the decline-and-re-sign strategy, stretching out the length of the deal. Would Hartenstein sign up for, say, $110 million over four years to pay him through his age-31 season? Such a deal would take $4 million off his 2026-27 cap hit.

Prediction: Decline and re-sign

Draymond Green, PF, Golden State (PO, $27,678,571)

Green is part of the fabric in Golden State, and while his expiring contract could be used in a trade, it seems more likely that the Warriors try to extend their runway by matching his contract duration to that of Steph Curry and Steve Kerr. BORD$ values Green at just $13.7 million, but he has $27.7 million coming his way. He’s not turning it down unless there’s a better proposition out there. Thus, Green opting out and re-signing for two years at, say, $38 million total would give the Warriors a lot more breathing room for their other offseason goals.

Prediction: Opts out and re-signs for two years

DeMar DeRozan, PF, Sacramento (PG $25,740,000, $10 million guaranteed)

Sacramento is rebuilding and has tax issues, but would they really just cut DeRozan? The 36-year-old has a BORD$ value of just $10.3 million but was arguably the Kings’ best player last season. Also, remember that full-speed tanking is no longer a desirable option. Alas, I don’t think DeRozan has trade value at this number except as expiring money to take back a bigger deal. Thus, if the Kings can’t move Malik Monk or Domantas Sabonis, they may feel forced to waive and stretch DeRozan instead, turning a $25.7 million cap hit into just $3.3 million per over three years.

Prediction: Waived and stretched

Fred VanVleet, PG, Houston (PO, $25,000,000)

It’s hard to put a value on VanVleet after he missed last season with a torn ACL. On the other hand, it’s easy to put a value on his meaning to the Rockets, after their point guard-less squad meandered aimlessly through possession after possession last season. Keeping him is likely a priority; BORD$ values the 32-year-old at $17.5 million, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see Houston go higher to lock up his services as both a floor general and leader. For instance, three years at $70 million would give the Rockets a few million extra in wiggle room to fight the apron this year while still securing future dollars for VanVleet.

Prediction: Opts out and re-signs

Jonathan Kuminga, PF, Atlanta (TO, $24,300,000)

The “What is Jonathan Kuminga actually worth?” debate enters Year Five! Kuminga showed some value as a bench scorer in Atlanta last spring, but BORD$ still values him as a high-end reserve, with his $9.4 million valuation falling well short of the contract dollars. I could see the Hawks picking up the option to use his contract in a trade, but it’s more likely that they decline it and either re-up at a lower number or move on.

Prediction: Option declined

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG, Memphis (PO, $21,621,500)

Caldwell-Pope can still play, but his days as an elite 3-and-D guy are behind him; BORD$ values him at $8.6 million, barely a third of what he’s due to make. The Grizzlies have known for a long time that he’d be picking up this option and will have his expiring money as a trade piece in February, if not sooner.

Prediction: Opts in

Lu Dort, SF, Oklahoma City (TO, $17,722,222)

Dort is one of the most interesting decisions on the market. On paper, his deal is fair: His contract pays him $17.722 million (plus a $500,000 incentive if he makes All-Defense), while BORD$ values him almost the same at $17.705 million. Here’s the thing: The Thunder can’t afford to keep him at this price, or any price, really, as they’re $28 million over next year’s second apron even without him, have ample depth at his position and need to make room on the roster for two more first-round picks. I think they end up picking up the option just to trade him for a second-round pick or two. Either way, I have a hard time seeing him on the Thunder next year.

Prediction: Option picked up and traded

Bogdan Bogdanovic, SG, L.A. Clippers (TO, $16,020,000)

Sadly, Bogie’s knees have prevented him from being the force he was in 2023-24 as a dynamite sixth man in Atlanta. This one is an easy decision for the Clippers.

Prediction: Option declined

Duncan Robinson, SF, Detroit (PG, $15,992,957, $2,000,000 guaranteed)

I think it’s unlikely the Pistons would waive Robinson. If anything, they’d likely trade him first since his BORD$ valuation is $16.8 million, giving him surplus value on this deal. However, I’m including him here for the unlikely scenario where the Pistons trade Caris LeVert, waive and stretch the $2 million guarantee on Robinson and try to operate as a cap-room team to take advantage of Jalen Duren’s low cap hold ($19.5 million) before re-signing him. I think it’s rather unlikely, though. Note that Robinson’s deal has no guarantee date; he can be cut any time before mid-November and the cap hit would be just $666,667 if Detroit stretches the money.

Prediction: Not waived

Austin Reaves, SG, L.A. Lakers (PO, $14,898,786)

Reaves played like an All-Star for much of last season and will be one of the most coveted free agents on the market (BORD$ value $34.4 million). It is inconceivable that he will opt in, as he will more than double his salary this summer in free agency.

Prediction: Opts out

Johnathan Isaac, C, Orlando (NG $14,500,000)

The Magic already have enough non-shooters, not to mention two other reliable centers. Thus, Isaac’s role is pretty limited even when he’s fully healthy …. which is not often. While BORD$ sees some value here ($6.2 million), it’s nowhere close to justifying picking up this guarantee for a squad that already has tax issues. Note that his contract guarantees July 7, so Orlando would have to waive him by then.

Prediction: Waived

Jonas Valančiūnas, C, Denver (PG, $10,000,000, $2,000,000 guaranteed)

This one was baked in the day the Nuggets acquired him from the Kings last summer and certified when Valančiūnas couldn’t make an impact in the playoffs. Denver will eat the remaining $2 million, stretch the cap hit over three years and give Valančiūnas his wings to avoid the tax penalties of paying him $10 million.

Prediction: Waived and stretched

Buddy Hield, SG, Atlanta (PG, $9,658,536, $3,000,000 guaranteed)

The Hawks basically told you what they would do here the day they traded for Hield, sticking him in the witness protection program despite skills that seemed to be needed on the roster. It’s possible Atlanta could use his salary in a trade, but if not, his contract guarantee date is one day after the draft. With an option year after this one, stretching Hield’s small guarantee would shatter the cap hit into $600,000 a year over five years.

Prediction: Waived and stretched

Brook Lopez, C, L.A. Clippers (TO, $9,187,500)

Lopez still has positive value as a floor spacer and rim protector, with a BORD$ value of $11.3 million despite turning 38 in April. The Clippers have cap-room scenarios they could lean into if they decline options on Lopez, Bogdan Bogdanovic and Nic Batum and perhaps make one or two other moves. In that case, they could bring Lopez back via the room exception. I see that pathway as less likely, however.

Prediction: Option picked up

Deandre Ayton, C, L.A. Lakers (PO, $8,104,000)

Ayton signed a bargain deal with the Lakers that he massively outplayed (BORD$ value $19.3 million) and should be up for a reward in the free-agent market as a result. He’ll be among the most gettable starting centers on the market.

Prediction: Opts out

Kevon Looney, C, New Orleans (TO, $8,000,000)

Looney played just 21 games last year and his body is 30 going on 50. The Pelicans also need breathing room under the tax line and have eleventy-seven other centers. This should be an easy call.

Prediction: Option declined

Kenrich Williams, PF, Oklahoma City (TO, $7,163,000)

Kenny Hustle seems like a Thunder lifer. He’s an important behind-the-scenes chemistry guy who can also actually play — his BORD$ value is $6.3 million, and Mark Daigneault turned to him in the last three games of the conference finals. The Thunder’s salary structure can no longer support keeping him at this number, however, so don’t be surprised if he signs a long-term deal for less annually instead.

Prediction: Decline and re-sign

Day’Ron Sharpe, C, Brooklyn (TO, $6,250,000)

While the Nets were getting hammered every night, Sharpe quietly emerged as one of the league’s best backup centers. He has outrun this contract, but there’s a case for the Nets to decline the option and then re-sign him to a longer deal on more favorable terms than they would get a year from now.

For instance, BORD$ sees Sharpe as worth $14.2 million. Could the Nets get him to agree to three years and $30-35 million in a decline-and-re-sign scenario, which equates to $25-30 million in new money?

One other note, since the Nets are a cap-room team: Brooklyn could decline Sharpe’s option and then re-sign him with their room exception to maximize cap space. Deals in this slot can max out at three years and $29.7 million. But if it had a third-year player option, that might still be fair.

Prediction: Decline and re-sign

Ziaire Williams, SF, Brooklyn (TO, $6,250,000)

Similar to Sharpe above, after a solid season, Williams is worth more than his contract (BORD$ value $10.3 million). However, that doesn’t necessarily mean the Nets will pick up his option, given that Brooklyn wants to maximize a huge cap-room windfall. As with Sharpe above, there’s a scenario in which the Nets decline the option and still re-sign Williams with their room exception for three years and $29 million. Either way, I imagine he ends up a Net.

Prediction: Decline and re-sign

Nic Batum, PF, L.A. Clippers (TO, $6,049,728)

The Clippers probably want Batum back, but at this price? Perhaps not, especially if the Clippers try to be a cap room team. It seems more likely to me that even if they brought Batum back, it would be on a minimum deal after declining the option.

Prediction: Decline and re-sign

Al Horford, C, Golden State (PO, $5,969,250)

Horford faces an interesting decision; BORD$ rates him as a $9.3 million value, which comfortably exceeds his salary for the coming year. Also, the Warriors have tax issues, and from a ring-chasing perspective, a return to Boston might be awfully tempting. On the other hand, one can also imagine a scenario in which Horford opts out but takes the maximum 120 percent raise (to $6.8 million for 2026-27) from the Warriors without cutting into their exception money.

Prediction: Opts out

D’Angelo Russell, PG, Washington (PO, $5,969,250)

BORD$ thinks this is perfectly fair value for Russell ($5.95 million valuation), but the league has spoken loudly that it disagrees; there is no market for him right now. He’ll likely need to spend half a season behind Trae Young rebuilding some trade value.

Prediction: Opts in

Kris Dunn, SG, L.A. Clippers (NG, $5,684,800)

Dunn’s offensive limitations can get in the way at times, but he remains one of the league’s best backcourt defenders. His contract is a screaming bargain. This should be an easy one. In fact, the only drama is if the Clippers try to extend it.

Prediction: Contract guaranteed

Bradley Beal, SG, L.A. Clippers (PO, $5,621,700)

Beal was shockingly ineffective in six games as a Clipper before suffering a season-ending injury. He also turns 33 in late June, so despite being a “name,” my model says he is worth the minimum. That might be too harsh — his two seasons in Phoenix weren’t amazing, but they were certainly above replacement level. Regardless, he has a limited market.

Prediction: Opts in

Kevin Porter Jr., PG, Milwaukee (PO, $5,390,700)

Porter seems likely to remain in Milwaukee, but not at this price: BORD$ rates him as worth $19.7 million. While that’s likely on the high side (since several teams have a big red line through Porter’s name for other off-court reasons), Milwaukee has early Bird rights on him to bring him back and can pay him up to an estimated $15.6 million in the first year of a new deal.

Prediction: Opts out and re-signs

Marcus Smart, SG, L.A. Lakers (PO, $5,390,700)

Smart signed his deal with a player option with the idea that he could get a payday this summer if he played well. He did. BORD$ now values him at $11.6 million, so he can confidently test the market.

Prediction: Opts out

Jose Alvarado, PG, New York (PO, $4,500,000)

Alvarado is a New Yorker who might give the Knicks a hometown discount, but he also has a $10.5 million BORD$ value and would presumably like to return on a better-paying contract than this one. In fact, part of the reason New Orleans traded him was the presumption that he’d opt out and become a free agent this summer.

Prediction: Opts out

Daniss Jenkins, PG, Detroit (TO, $4,000,000)

The in-season deal the Pistons signed for Jenkins seemed set up for them to decline the option and then re-sign him as a non-Bird free agent to a multi-year deal this summer. Doing so without using exception money would involve a 20 percent raise on last season’s pro-rated salary to $4.57 million. Do the math and something around three years and $15 million total would seem to make sense; conveniently, BORD$ values him at $5.25 million. (Note that if Detroit goes the unlikely cap-room route — see Robinson above — Jenkins could sign into the Pistons’ room exception.)

Prediction: Decline and re-sign

Svi Mykhailiuk, SG, Utah (NG, $3,850,000)

The Jazz have a fair deal with Mykhailiuk (BORD$ value: $4 million), but his skills are somewhat duplicative of Brice Sensabaugh’s, not to mention potential draft pick Darryn Peterson. The Jazz don’t need the cap room and can stay under the tax with or without Mykhailiuk. The roster is getting crowded and they have a June 30 decision date on the guarantee. It seems more likely he’s either dealt or cut before then.

Prediction: Waived

Gary Trent, Jr., SG, Milwaukee (PO, $3,815,960)

Milwaukee has four different players in the same situation: owning minimum deals with player options and coming off disappointing seasons. Normally, you’d think they would just opt in, but there’s an angle for the Bucks to get those four (Trent, Taurean Prince, Gary Harris and Jericho Sims) to decline and re-sign one-year minimum deals. That would give them the same salary but at a lower cap number; doing so for all four players would give the Bucks $5 million in extra wiggle room beneath the tax line.

Prediction: Opts out and re-signs

Taurean Prince, PF, Milwaukee (PO, $3,815,960)

Prince didn’t have offers for more than this last year and missed most of this past season with a neck injury, so it’s hard to see how things get any better for him. See above.

Prediction: Opts out and re-signs

Gary Harris, SG, Milwaukee (PO, $3,815,861)

Harris rates as a minimum guy because of the decline in his offensive juice. Again, see the note on Trent.

Prediction: Opts out and re-signs

Dom Barlow, PF, Philadelphia (TO, $3,415,000)

As with Jenkins above, Barlow’s deal in Philly seemed predicated on declining his option and then re-inking him as a non-Bird free agent this summer. Since BORD$ values him at $9.55 million, a multi-year deal starting at his non-Bird max of $4.1 million would be a win for the Sixers.

Prediction: Decline and re-sign

De’Anthony Melton, SG, Golden State (PO, $3,234,967)

Melton has been effective when he can stay healthy, something he mostly managed in Golden State last season. His player option amount is so low that it seems like a relatively low-risk move to decline it and see what is out there, even if it’s just a deal for the biannual exception. BORD$ values him at $5.0 million. Even if he wants to come back on this deal, note that, as with the Bucks players, Melton could save the Warriors a million on their tax calculation by opting out and re-signing a one-year minimum deal.

Prediction: opts out

Julian Champagnie, PF, San Antonio (TO, $3,000,000)

Champagnie has massively outkicked his coverage on this contract — BORD$ values him at $25.7 million — to the point that the Spurs would have a real problem in 2027 if he hit the market as a 25-year-old unrestricted free agent. The Spurs are also limited in what they could pay him in an extension before then.

However, with the team set to become hugely expensive in future seasons, and with Champagnie having full Bird rights if the Spurs decline his option, the obvious move is to lock him up now to a long-term contract, structuring it with declining annual salaries.

Imagine, for instance, ripping up the option and handing him a five-year deal for $105 million (i.e., four years and $102 million in new money) that starts at $25 million in 2026-27 and descends the maximum $2 million a year until it pays $17 million in 2030-31 … by which point Victor Wembanyama, Dylan Harper, Stephon Castle and Carter Bryant will all be on their second contacts.

Prediction: Decline and re-sign

Sandro Mamukelashvili, C, Toronto (PO, $2,801,346)

Mamukelashvili was one of the league’s biggest bargains last season. After blowing up as a stretch 5 off the bench, he now shapes up as one of the summer’s best unrestricted free agents (BORD$ value: $19.5 million). Note that the Raptors also have no Bird rights on him, which means he’s as good as gone.

Prediction: Opts out.

Jericho Sims, C, Milwaukee (PO, $2,801,346)

A player option? They gave Jericho Sims a player option? Yes. Yes they did. Anyway, I expect Sims to return as the Bucks’ third center via the means explained in the note on Trent above.

Prediction: Opts out and re-signs

Justin Champagnie, SF, Washington (NG, $2,66,7944)

Finally, we have the other Champagnie. His deal is nearly as much a bargain as his brother’s — BORD$ values him at $16.3 million, but Champagnie’s contract pays him the minimum this year and next (when he has a team option for $3 million).

With the Wizards actually trying to win games this year, it behooves Washington to keep him in the fold going forward, which likely requires nuking that option year for 2027-28 and signing a longer-term extension. Champagnie isn’t eligible to do that until March 3, so we’ll have to wait a bit, but when that date comes around … don’t be surprised he’s the last of a great many “decline and re-sign” extensions in the 2026-27 season.

Prediction: In-season decline-and-re-sign